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Cost, payback and rebates

What commercial solar costs, and when it pays for itself

Real dollar ranges by system size, the STC discount explained without the sales spin, and payback maths shown rather than asserted.

The short answer

Commercial solar in Australia costs roughly $700 to $1,100 per kilowatt installed before rebates, falling to about $620 to $840 per kilowatt after the federal STC discount. For solar installed from 1 October 2026 that discount covers systems up to 1MW, up from 100kW — what the change means for a quote. Payback lands between 2.5 and 4 years for a business that uses most of its power in daylight hours, and stretches beyond that for one that doesn't. Victoria adds an upfront discount for systems of 30 to 200kW. Everywhere else, STCs are the whole of the upfront support.

$700–$1,100
Per kW installed, before STCs
2.5 to 4 years
Payback, daytime-heavy sites
100 kW → 1 MW
STC ceiling, from 1 Oct 2026

Indicative ranges

Cost by system size

Indicative commercial solar system sizes, installed cost and payback
SystemRoof areaInstalledSaved a yearPayback
30 kW~54 panels150 to 190 m²$28,000 to $38,000$7,000 to $11,0002.8 to 4.1 years
50 kW~90 panels250 to 320 m²$44,000 to $58,000$12,000 to $18,0002.6 to 3.8 years
100 kW~180 panels500 to 620 m²$82,000 to $110,000$24,000 to $36,0002.5 to 3.6 years

Ranges, not quotes. These are example figures, not our prices or a quote. Roof type, switchboard condition, network approval and how much of your load falls in daylight hours move every one of these numbers. The proposal you get back replaces this table with figures for your site. It shows the STC discount, the federal upfront price reduction, as its own line (Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme, Clean Energy Regulator, checked 23 October 2026).

Federal

How the STC discount actually works

Small-scale Technology Certificates are the federal government's support for solar systems up to 1MW installed from 1 October 2026 (100kW before that date, as set out below), and they're the reason a commercial quote shows two prices. The certificates are created upfront based on three things: how big the system is, which of the four zone ratings your postcode falls into, and how many years are left in the scheme, which winds down to nothing in 2030.

You almost never touch this. The installer claims the certificates and takes their value straight off your invoice, so what you see is a discounted price rather than a rebate you apply for and wait on. The value shifts with the market price of certificates, which is why a quote from March and a quote from November can differ on the same system.

Two things worth knowing. The zone rating matters, and it's why the same 50kW system attracts a bigger discount in Brisbane or Perth than in Melbourne. And the install date decides which side of the ceiling you're on. Crossing the ceiling moves a system to Large-scale Generation Certificates, which pay out over the life of the system rather than upfront and involve far more administration. Installed before 1 October 2026, a 99kW system and a 110kW system are different financial products. Installed on or after it, both are within the new 1 MW limit on their own, but the limit counts related solar on the same or adjoining sites, and the installer who prepares your proposal checks it. What the change means for a quote is set out below.

The scheme's rules and current zone map are published by the Clean Energy Regulator.

From 1 October 2026

The STC ceiling moves from 100kW to 1MW

The threshold that decides whether a system gets its certificates upfront or over time moves from 100kW to 1MW for solar installed from 1 October 2026. The regulations were made on 16 September 2026, so this is law rather than an announcement. A system between 100kW and 1MW that used to earn Large-scale Generation Certificates over its life can now take its certificate value upfront, off the installed price, the way a smaller system always has.

What the regulations say

  • Solar PV systems above 100 kW and no more than 1 MW, installed from 1 October 2026, can create STCs. Before that date the ceiling is still 100 kW.
  • The 1 MW limit counts everything on the site: an expansion, or a new system beside an existing one, can't take the total past 1 MW.
  • Systems in this range use a 5-year deeming period each year to 2030, rather than the shrinking period smaller systems use.
  • The installer must provide a written installer statement. Designer and retailer statements are not required at this size.
  • Applications will not open until mid to late November 2026, when the Clean Energy Regulator's systems are in place.
Renewable Energy (Electricity) Amendment (Mid-scale Solar) Regulations 2026 · legislation.gov.au

What it means for a quote

Everything turns on the install date. A system over 100kW installed before 1 October 2026 is a large-scale project and should be costed as one. The same system installed on or after it can carry the STC discount, and a proposal should show the upfront price with that discount applied.

Two things to check on any quote above 100kW. First, the timing: applications don’t open until mid to late November, so ask how the installer handles the gap between switch-on and the certificates being processed, and who carries it. Second, the site total: the 1MW limit includes any solar already on the site, so an expansion is sized against what’s there.

Four sizes, and where each one sits

Roof area and panel count, scaled from the sizes in the table above. There is no pricing here deliberately: above 100kW, installed cost is set by the network connection, the switchboard and the structural allowance far more than by the number of panels, so a range quoted without real jobs behind it would be a guess dressed as a figure.

100 kW

500 to 620 m² of roof · ~180 panels

A cold store, a food processor, a school campus, a multi-tenancy estate.

Installed before 1 October 2026
At the old ceiling, and inside the small-scale scheme. Certificates are created upfront and come off the invoice.
Installed from 1 October 2026
No change. It was already inside the scheme and stays there.

250 kW

1,250 to 1,550 m² of roof · ~450 panels

A distribution centre, a regional shopping centre, a mid-size processing plant.

Installed before 1 October 2026
Above the old ceiling. Large-scale generation certificates, earned over the life of the system rather than taken off the price.
Installed from 1 October 2026
Inside the small-scale scheme. Certificates are created upfront and come off the invoice.

500 kW

2,500 to 3,100 m² of roof · ~900 panels

A large cold-chain facility, a heavy manufacturing plant, a hospital or university building.

Installed before 1 October 2026
Above the old ceiling, and large enough that the network connection usually sets the timetable before the certificates do.
Installed from 1 October 2026
Inside the small-scale scheme. Certificates are created upfront and come off the invoice.

1 MW

5,000 to 6,200 m² of roof · ~1,800 panels

A multi-building campus, a large cold-storage or processing facility, an industrial estate behind one meter.

Installed before 1 October 2026
Well above the old ceiling. A large-scale project in every respect, certificates included.
Installed from 1 October 2026
The new ceiling itself: inside the scheme at 1 MW, and the limit counts any solar already on the site.

Two things to hold against those roof areas. They scale the ratio the smaller systems use, and a large array needs more than the bare panel footprint: walkways, inverter and switchgear space and fire setbacks all take area. So treat the upper end of each range as the planning figure. And past roughly 100kW the binding constraint usually stops being the roof at all. It becomes the connection: what the network will allow you to export, what the switchboard and transformer will carry, and how long approval takes. The installation page covers that sequence, and it is the part of a large system’s timeline that a certificate change does nothing to shorten.

Worked example

Payback, with the working shown

Take a 50kW system on a Brisbane warehouse. Here's the arithmetic anyone quoting you should be willing to write down.

Worked payback example for a 50kW commercial system
System size50 kWSized to the site's daytime load, not the roof area
Annual generation72,500 kWhAt roughly 1,450 kWh per kW a year in Brisbane
Self-consumed80%58,000 kWh used on site rather than exported
Grid rate avoided$0.28 / kWhWhat the business would otherwise pay
Saving on consumption$16,24058,000 kWh × $0.28
Export earnings$72514,500 kWh exported at roughly $0.05
Total annual benefit$16,965Before any demand-charge reduction
Cost after STCs$38,000Mid-point of the 50kW range
Payback2.2 years$38,000 ÷ $16,965

Change one assumption and the answer moves a long way. Drop self-consumption from 80% to 40%, which is what happens on a site that runs evenings, and the annual benefit falls to around $8,850 with payback stretching past four years. That single number, how much of your generation you use rather than sell, does more to decide whether commercial solar works for you than the price of the panels.

It's also the number a quote built without your bill has to guess at. Which is the whole argument for starting with the bill.

By type of site

Payback for warehouses, factories and cold stores

The same 100kW system in Brisbane, on four kinds of site. Only one thing changes: how much of the solar the site uses itself.

Example payback for a 100kW system by type of site
Type of siteSolar used on siteYearly savingYears to pay back
Cold store, refrigeration running day and night90%$37,2652.0
Warehouse or distribution centre, day shifts six days a week80%$33,9302.2
Manufacturer, one weekday day shift, closed weekends65%$28,9282.5
Site busiest in the evening, such as a club or venue40%$20,5903.5

What we assumed. A 100kW system in Brisbane makes about 145,000 kWh a year, at the same 1,450 kWh per kW as the worked example above. Each kWh used on site saves $0.28, each kWh sent to the grid earns $0.05, and the system costs $73,000 after STCs, the middle of the 100kW range in the table further up. Demand charges are left out. These are examples, not our prices or a quote, and the shares used on site are typical figures, not measured jobs.

Why the cold store comes out ahead. Refrigeration runs all day, so the site soaks up almost everything the panels make. Its overnight load is still there, and solar does nothing for it. Solar cuts the daytime part of the bill, so the saving looks smaller next to a cold store’s total bill than next to a warehouse’s.

Why the factory closed on weekends drops back. Two days in seven, most of the power goes to the grid for a small credit. A site like that often does better with a slightly smaller system, or one sized to a weekend load it already has.

Check your rate. Large sites often pay a lower rate per kWh, with a demand charge on top. At $0.20 a kWh instead of $0.28, the warehouse saving falls to about $24,650 and payback stretches to about 3.0 years. Use the rate on your own bill, and if you hold more than one quote, put them on the same assumptions before comparing.

State by state

What exists, and what doesn't

Western Australia

No commercial rebate, and the state's buyback scheme doesn't cover commercial systems, only homes, not-for-profits and schools with 5kW or less. Exports earn little or nothing, so systems here earn their keep by covering daytime load.

Detail for this state

Queensland

No standing commercial rebate. STCs are worth more here than in Victoria because of the zone rating. Feed-in rates in the south-east are set by retailers, not government.

Detail for this state

Victoria

The one state with a current commercial solar incentive: the Victorian Energy Upgrades program gives an upfront discount on systems between 30kW and 200kW, through an accredited provider. Its value moves with certificate prices, so it's checked on the day rather than printed here.

Detail for this state

South Australia

No commercial rebate, and the highest rooftop solar penetration in the country. Midday exports are worth very little, so the value sits almost entirely in self-consumption.

Detail for this state

State programs open and close. Confirm the current position on the relevant state government site before you budget around any of them.

Questions

Cost and rebate questions

What does commercial solar cost in Australia?

For a 30kW system, roughly $28,000 to $38,000 installed before the STC discount, and about $21,000 to $29,000 after it. A 100kW system runs to roughly $82,000 to $110,000 installed, or $62,000 to $84,000 after STCs. Roof type, switchboard capacity and network approval conditions move those figures.

How does the STC discount work for commercial solar?

Small-scale Technology Certificates apply to systems up to 100kW, and to eligible systems up to 1MW installed from 1 October 2026. They're created upfront based on the system size, your location's zone rating and the years left in the scheme, and the installer almost always claims them for you and takes the value off the invoice. You don't apply for anything and you don't wait for a payment. The 1MW ceiling comes from regulations made in September 2026. A system above 100kW installed before 1 October 2026 still falls under Large-scale Generation Certificates, which pay out over time rather than upfront.

Sources: Clean Energy Regulator: calculating STC entitlements (opens in a new tab); Clean Energy Regulator: mid-scale solar (opens in a new tab)

Is the 100kW STC limit changing to 1MW?

Yes. The Mid-scale Solar Regulations 2026 were made on 16 September 2026, so solar PV systems above 100kW and up to 1MW installed from 1 October 2026 can create STCs. The 1MW limit counts everything on the site, and systems in this range use a 5-year deeming period each year to 2030. The Clean Energy Regulator says applications will not open until mid to late November 2026, so a system installed in October will wait a few weeks for its certificates to be processed. A system installed before 1 October is still under the old 100kW rule. A system in this range can choose REGO certificates instead of STCs, but not both for the deeming period.

Sources: Mid-scale Solar Regulations 2026 (Federal Register of Legislation) (opens in a new tab); Clean Energy Regulator: mid-scale solar (opens in a new tab)

What is a typical payback period for commercial solar?

Two and a half to four years for a business that uses most of its power during daylight hours. It stretches out for a site that draws mainly at night, because the value sits in offsetting power you'd otherwise buy rather than in exporting. A warehouse running day shifts and a pub trading evenings get very different answers from the same roof.

What is a fair payback period for commercial solar on a manufacturing site or warehouse?

On our worked example, a 100kW system in Brisbane at $73,000 after STCs pays back in about 2.2 years on a warehouse running day shifts six days a week, and about 2.5 years on a factory that runs one weekday shift and closes at weekends. A cold store running refrigeration day and night comes out at about 2 years. Those figures assume $0.28 a kWh saved and $0.05 for power sent to the grid. Large sites often pay a lower rate with a demand charge on top, and at $0.20 a kWh the warehouse payback stretches to about 3 years. The share of solar your site uses itself decides most of the answer.

Are there state rebates for commercial solar?

Mostly no. Victoria is the exception: its Victorian Energy Upgrades program gives an upfront discount on commercial solar systems between 30kW and 200kW. Western Australia, Queensland and South Australia have no standing commercial solar rebate, so the federal STC discount is the whole of the upfront support in those states. Check the current position on the relevant state government site before budgeting for anything else.

Sources: Solar Victoria: commercial and industrial solar (opens in a new tab); WA Government: energy buyback schemes (opens in a new tab); energy.gov.au: rebates for Queensland businesses (opens in a new tab); energy.gov.au: rebates for South Australian businesses (opens in a new tab)

Does commercial solar still pay off if we can't export?

Often yes. Export earnings are a small part of the return on most commercial systems, because feed-in rates are low and midday wholesale prices in some states sit near zero. If your business consumes most of what it generates, a zero-export system can still pay back in a similar window. Ask for the numbers with export revenue set to zero and see whether they hold.

Can we claim commercial solar as a tax deduction?

A solar system is a depreciating asset, so a business usually deducts its cost over time rather than all at once. The instant asset write-off is the exception, and it's narrow. From 1 July 2026 the $20,000 threshold is permanent. It's for small businesses with an aggregated turnover under $10 million that use the simplified depreciation rules, and it only covers eligible assets that each cost less than $20,000 and are first used or installed ready for use in that income year. Most commercial solar systems cost well over $20,000, so most won't qualify. An eligible small business can put an asset costing $20,000 or more into the small business pool instead, which depreciates it at 15% in the first year and 30% a year after that. Your accountant or a registered tax agent can tell you how this applies to your business.

Sources: ATO: instant asset write-off for eligible businesses (opens in a new tab); ATO: $20,000 instant asset write-off made permanent (opens in a new tab)

Last updated 15 October 2026.

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